Opinion: Has transit entered the “death spiral?”

That ominous description refers to a situation where a decrease in ridership leads to lower farebox revenue, which in turn leads to service cuts, which further reduces ridership, and so on in a vicious downward cycle

Charles Prestrud
Washington Policy Center

Transit ridership dropped sharply with the onset of the COVID pandemic in 2020. The slow rebound in the years that followed has prompted discussion, sometimes in hushed tones, as to whether transit had entered a “death spiral.” That ominous description refers to a situation where a decrease in ridership leads to lower farebox revenue, which in turn leads to service cuts, which further reduces ridership, and so on in a vicious downward cycle.

There are historical examples, notably in rust-belt cities that experienced significant loss of population and jobs as their downtowns hollowed out. However, a careful examination of trends in Washington State reveals both similarities and significant differences. Perhaps the biggest difference is the strong growth in transit agency revenue, which increased from $2.15 billion in 2012 to $5.19 billion in 2022. The increase in funding is mostly due to an increase in sales tax revenue and federal grants.

The trend in hourly operating costs is not so encouraging. Fo